Apr 162013
 

Even though we haven’t had a sensational weather event in a while to make the climate question a topic of chatter, I thought it would be important to survey recent disasters using photographs from around the web. I think assembling this information in one place where connections can easily be made offers a powerful statement about the world in which we live. It also raises a number of serious questions. Res ipsa loquitur, as the old judges used to say.

Anyone who’s over 40 can tell you that something feels different about the equilibrium of the climate today compared to when they were much younger. Something doesn’t feel right. Too many super storms; too many records broken in too short a time period. Rain, when it comes, is often erratic.

Many of us instinctively sense that things have changed, and that the change came about too quickly to feel normal. I personally find myself wondering from time to time what happened to the  tranquility that mostly seemed to govern my world a long time ago. Maybe this was just youthful bliss. But I grew up in Brooklyn during the 70′s and 80′s when muggings and heroine addiction were rampant. When mass murderers, like Berkowitz, roamed the earth. Despite this, I can’t get over how, in the middle of my life, it feels like the balance of the world somehow somewhere along the way got fundamentally out of whack.

We don’t have to be scientists to know this. We know it because we feel it in the depths of our being just like we do when we sense someone staring at us. Or when our comfort or security zone is suddenly challenged. A truth undeniable and inescapable grips us, and we suddenly know it in the way we need to know when our survival depends on it. So when pictures of biblical-sized proportions make headlines with a disconcerting regularity, it’s understandable that at least some of us begin to question the natural order of things–the natural order, that is, which we thought use to exist.

I don’t know about you but I don’t need a politician or lobbyist or some caffeinated blogger to tell me that seeing New York City under water is normal. Or New Orleans. Or Philadelphia. Or Atlanta. Just to mention some recent examples.

Nor does it seem normal to read about 70 degree days in Minneapolis in January or that over half the entire U.S. is simultaneously experiencing drought conditions. Or one town after another getting erased from the map by killer tornadoes. Or that almost 10 million acres burned to a crisp last year (in one year)–this hair raising fact on top of a decade of record wildfires that makes the prior 40 years look boring.

But why continue describing in words what can so easily be shown in pictures? So, like I said, I decided to compile some photo galleries of recent natural disasters, the frequency and intensity of which strike me as utterly abnormal–at least with respect to the comparatively calm world in which this 41-year old was born into in what seems like a long, long time ago in a place far, far away.

Note that the gallery below isn’t comprehensive. It’s been assembled to help illustrate the unusual weather that we’ve experienced in recent years. I’ll do my best to update the gallery as events unfold and time permits. Visitors are welcome to email any good photos they feel belong here to: modern (at) modernfolktales (dot) com.

The Global Drought: Vanishing Water

Extreme water shortages resulting from prolonged, multi-year droughts are squeezing every region of the globe in an invisible grip. Here you’ll see images that bear the marks of its force. As UCL’s Global Drought Monitor vividly shows, nobody is exempt, neither the mighty or the weak. Extreme ongoing droughts are currently ravaging North and South America, Europe, , Africa, and .

Last year in July, 2012, as parts of the mighty Mississippi evaporated to the point of becoming unnavigable, the National Climatic Data Center reported that, with over 55% of the country affected, the U.S. was undergoing the most widespread drought since the 1950′s. Last June ranked as the 3rd driest month is at least 118 years. Over half the nation is still experiencing moderate to severe drought conditions.

As summer, 2013, looms the mayor of urged residents on April 14th to pray for rain. It’s ironic, to say the least, that this backdrop, frackers across Texas and the U.S. are zealously blasting billions of gallons of fresh water down into the earth in a frenzied pursuit of oil and natural gas. Further compounding this tragic waste of good water is the fact that much of it is, as a consequence of fracking, being stored deep below the surface in a highly toxic form. This water is being permanently removed from the hydrosphere. Consequently, it will never evaporate again and return to us in the form of rain.

A World in Flames: Wildfires Everywhere

According to the National Interagency Fire Center, wildfires scorched over 9 million acres across the U.S. in 2012, the most burned of any year on record since 1960 when accurate records began. The only exceptions to this would be 2006 and 2007 when even more acreage burned. Moreover, 8 of the top 10 years during the 52-year period occurred between 2000-2012.

In 2006, the Journal Science reported that large wildfire activity increased suddenly and markedly in the mid-1980s, with higher large-wildfire frequency, longer wildfire durations, and longer wildfire seasons. It concluded that higher temperatures and earlier snow melts played major roles in the increase.

The escalating size and intensity of wildfires is even more amazing when one considers that this development has occurred despite advances in wildfire management and prevention techniques. The average number of fires from 1999-2012 was just under 1.1 million per year while the average between 1960-2012 was almost 5.7 million. But the total number of acres that burned between 1999-2012 was an astonishing 96.4 million, making up a whopping 41% of the total for the entire period! A study published in June, 2012, in the peer-reviewed journal Ecosphere reported that climate change is widely expected to disrupt future wildfire patterns around the world, with some regions, such as the western U.S., expected to see more and more frequent fires over the next 30 years.

Incredible, Insatiable

Most of us have heard about melting ice caps and rising ocean temperatures and how this increases the volume of water, which, in turn, causes sea levels to rise. We need only to look at Hurricane Sandy to realize how dangerous the combination of and major storms (particularly exceptionally low pressure storms) can be—even in places, like major Northeastern metropolises, that haven’t historically been threatened by flooding.

Although storm surge can submerge even the largest cities, erratic and unusual rainfall patterns can also cause severe flooding, particularly in rivershed areas. Variations in global precipitation is highly complex but researchers are starting to document the changes that many millions of people around the world have been experiencing for years. Princeton University researchers published a report in the in November, 2011, that found that unusual fluctuations in rainfall are affecting more than a third of the planet. In addition to flooding events, erratic precipitation and sunlight impairs photosynthesis, which raises a host of frightening questions, not least of which has to do with the foundation of the food chain.

The Wonderful World of Killer Tornadoes

At 753 tornadoes, April 2011 was the most active tornado month on record, according to the (NOAA). It smashed the previous record of 267 in April 1974. Moreover, the April 25th-28th, 2011, outbreak was the most prolific in history, producing 358 tornadoes, 209 of which occurred in a single 24-hour period on April 27th. The outbreak killed 325 people. That month saw 770 tornadoes, far surpassing the record of 542 set in May, 2003. To put this in perspective: the average number of tornadoes reported annually in the U.S. is about 800.

With damage totaling $2.3 billion, the Joplin tornado of May, 2011, is the costliest on record. Whatever you choose to believe about , I think many people in tornado-prone areas find it hard to sleep well at night on the conviction that nothing has really changed all that much about the frequency and intensity of tornadoes. Particularly if their aware that the reported in its most recent assessment that the world has been experiencing more violent storms since 1970, a view that isn’t expected to change. Of course, it might just be possible that Mother Nature is conspiring against us and trying to fool us all. Just because she’s too damn liberal and doesn’t happen to like our politics that much.

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Dec 092012
 

Here’s the situation in Texas and other parts of the country where fracking for natural gas has come on the scene: it’s producing a hell of a lot of gas, excitement, and money.

Earthquake epicenters examined in the study (red circles), injection wells (squares and + symbols) in use since October 2006, seismic monitoring stations (white triangles), and mapped faults (green lines). Credit: Cliff Frohlich/U. of Texas at Austin.

All of this gas is also producing a hell of a lot of wastewater, which, according to experts is producing a hell of a lot of earthquakes. Earthquakes? Yes, that’s right, earthquakes, as in the kind that shake the ground. According to some geophysicists, it isn’t fracking itself that’s causing earthquakes, it’s all the wastewater being pumped back into the ground for storage.

One of the most troubling concerns about these man-made earthquakes is the fact that they’re happening in places where people rarely, if ever, noticed them before. , a small town in east Texas, is a good example. On Friday, Dec. 7 at 1:38 p.m, it was shaken by a 2.8 magnitude earthquake only 5 km below the surface.

Although quakes are almost never felt in this part of the country, Friday’s tremblor isn’t the first this year. A  3.7 magnitude earthquake caught everyone’s attention on May 10, 2012. This was followed by an aftershock on May 17 that measured at a magnitude of 4.3.

Scientists at the Stephen F. Austin Geology Department in Nacogdoches have been monitoring earthquakes in the area to determine their cause. Dr. Wesley Brown, an associate professor in the geology department, thinks the earthquakes are being caused by massive amounts of hydrofracking wastewater being pumped into nearby injection wells.

“At the moment we are actually linking them to injection wells that are located close to where the earthquakes are in the Timpson area. We have one a little bit to the north, and [the wells] are north and south of each other,” said Dr. Brown. “The volume, especially for the one in the south is up over 200,000 barrels of water per month.”1

Assuming these are 42 gallon barrels, this equals 8.4 million gallons of water per month.  There are currently over 144,000 injection wells in the U.S. With more than 49,000, Texas holds the majority, by far.2

Apart from the soundness of storing highly in the earth, human activities that create earthquakes pose a number of serious questions. Unfortunately, these questions may be complicated by the vast amounts of money the nation’s fracking currently yields.

The group Texas Natural Gas Now claims that natural gas, much of it captured through fracking, “contributes more than $100 billion to the Texas economy each year, including product sales, royalties, and property, state, local and severance taxes.”3.

Whether $100 billion outweighs the many costs fracking produces (such as earthquakes) should be seriously examined by federal and state authorities. On the surface of it, it’s apparent that the very process of (i.e., fracking) is an environmentalist’s worst nightmare. It involves drilling holes in the ground thousands of feet deep; dropping and detonating explosives in the holes;  and then pumping in millions of gallons of chemical-laced water (aka “slick water”) to free oil and gas trapped in rock. This process has enabled energy companies to get at oil and gas, which, up until now, has been off limits due to the difficulties involved in obtaining it. Fracking has sparked a drilling boom of staggering proportions in the U.S. and elsewhere.

Though it’s hard to state with precision where millions of gallons of toxic water goes when its forced down under high pressure into a hole thousands of feet deep, it often comes bubbling back up to the surface whence it came. In addition to the chemicals that were added to it before it was originally pumped into the ground, it returns to ground level full of additional extracts and minerals picked up on its journey: salt, heavy metals, radon, etc.

To solve this inconvenience, more holes must be drilled in the ground. These are referred to as injection wells and are designed to hold large quantities of the wastewater. Instead of a few thousand feet, they reach far deeper, often as much as 1 1/2 miles below the surface. The dirty water is pumped back down where, engineers assure us, it won’t escape and contaminate other resources, like, for instance, drinking water.

Whatever your stance on the matter, whether you’re pro-fracking or anti-fracking, the available data makes it pretty clear that a lot of earthquakes are starting to be felt in places where people rarely, if ever, noticed them before.

Before a series of small quakes on Halloween 2008, the Dallas area had never recorded a magnitude-3 earthquake, said Cliff Frohlich, associate director and senior research scientist at the University of Texas at Austin’s Institute for Geophysics.4

Frohlich analyzed seismic data collected between November 2009 and September 2011 by the EarthScope USArray Program, a National Science Foundation-funded network of broadband seismometers from the Canadian border to the Gulf of Mexico.

Frolich surmises that pumping millions of gallons of wastewater into the ground can have the unintended consequence of causing fault lines to slip, which can produce earthquakes

“You can’t prove that any one earthquake was caused by an injection well,” says Frohlich. “But it’s obvious that wells are enhancing the probability that earthquakes will occur.”5

Other geophysicists seem to think that this explanation makes sense. For example, , a seismologist and an adjunct professor of geophysics at the University of Memphis, agrees that, in general, links between wastewater injection and are plausible.

“Most, if not all, geophysicists expect induced earthquakes to be more likely from wastewater injection rather than hydrofracking,” Boyd wrote in an email to Life’s Little Mysteries. “This is because the wastewater injection tends to occur at greater depth where earthquakes are more likely to nucleate. I also agree [with Frohlich] that induced earthquakes are likely to persist for some time (months to years) after wastewater injection has ceased.”6

As for the fracking itself, Frolich doesn’t believe that it causes earthquakes.

“Drilling never causes earthquakes,” Frohlich said in a telephone interview [with Reuters]. “Fracking almost never causes earthquakes … While there are probably millions of hydrofracking jobs, only a few have caused earthquakes and they’ve all been little tiny earthquakes.”7

Assuming the geophysicists are right, the question just screaming to be asked is whether it’s wise to pursue a course of action that causes earthquakes. Why on earth would anyone want to do anything that causes earthquakes? Specifically, should we continue to pump billions of gallons of water into “wells” if it’s possible to cause earthquakes?

But Frolich doesn’t appear to be too concerned.

“It’s not entirely clear to me that you need to stop [the quakes],” Frohlich says.8

“My study found more small quakes, nearly all less than magnitude 3.0, but just more of the smaller ones than were previously known. The risk is all from big quakes, which don’t seem to occur here.” [referring to the Barnett Shale.]9

StateImpact Texas reports that Frolich compares the experience of feeling the smaller quakes to witnessing a moderate thunderstorm that might wake you up in the middle of the night with a boom. “It’s actually kind of fun,” he says.10

Yet, as far as we know, thunderstorms are still produced by nature only; they’re not by-products of profit-driven enterprises.

Moreover, what about the what-if factor? Do we know what all the unintended consequences are of producing artifical earthquakes. After all, the state of Texas isn’t a laboratory. It exists in the real world. And the world is incredibly complex, being composed of untold numbers of interconnected life-forms and systems. To unleash forces huge enough to cause earthquakes is to gamble with complexities which we cannot hope to full understand. For example, what if the quakes get more frequent or worse? Do we know for sure that countless billions of gallons of water won’t cause this to happen?

It’s well documented that quakes caused by injection wells can occur long after injecting the water. The 1961 injection well drilled near Denver is a case in point. According to the USGS11 , “an unusual series of earthquakes”erupted in the area soon after.” A year and a half later, on Aug. 9, 1967, a 5.3-magnitude earthquake, the most powerful in Denver’s history, struck. It was followed by a 5.2-magnitude quake in the region that November, according to the USGS.

The biggest earthquake linked to an injection well occurred in Oklahoma last year. It was a magnitude 5.7.

were first introduced in the Barnett Shale field, which is a region in Northern Texas that encompasses the Dallas-Ft. Worth metropolitan area. The number of wells drilled in the area went from a yearly average of 73 in the late 1990s to 2,500 in 2007.

As of January, 2012, the Railroad Commission of Texas reports that there were 14,661 producing gas wells in the Barnett Shale 24 county area.12

A database search in the reveals that from January 1, 2000 – January 1, 2006, no earthquakes  were recorded in the Barnett Shale region and east Texas (where a number of injection wells have been drilled). But from Halloween 2008 to the present 59 quakes were recorded (though Frolich’s study found 68 from 2009 – 2011). 23 of these occurred in 2012 alone. The average magnitude was 2.6 and 15 of them registered a 2.9 or greater. 7 of them erupted in 2012. One of them was a 4.8 trembler that struck the town of Timpson in eastern Texas on May 17th. They all occurred close to the surface with an average on only 5 km.

Fortunately, my research hasn’t found that anyone was hurt. Though some homes have been damaged. Fort Worth Weekly recently told the story of the Rosalez family in Cleburne. One of the quakes popped a window out of its frame in their home and damaged their foundation. There are cracks in their walls now, some six inches long.

StateImpact Texas astutely points out that there’s also the question of earthquakes damaging injection wells and oil/gas pipelines.13 As the ground shifts, will the structural integrity be compromised? This is particularly relevant, since Texas isn’t a state that’s known for earthquakes, so it’s unlikely they’ve been designed to withstand them.

As the shale gas boom continues so too will the need for injection wells. The U.S. is literally awash in cheap natural gas. Production was outpacing demand so greatly that some market observers started to question earlier this year if we’d run out of room to put all the gas. Nothing points to the drilling frenzy that grips our country better than this dilemma.

Never fear. The market is seeking to exploit fracking’s largess by coming up with new and better ways to use all the gas. Electric utilities are closing coal plants and opening new nat gas generators. LNG gas terminals are being built to export to markets all over the world. After getting burned in the 1990′s, some brave souls are even starting to pitch CNG vehicles again. Consequently, it’s likely that market forces will continue to demand more and more drilling. Given the huge revenues being produced, policymakers and bureaucrats will come under intense pressure to accept greater risks in return for what are perceived to be lucrative rewards.

But the question remains: What’s going to happen to the trillions of gallons of toxic water that we’re pumping into the ground beneath our feet? Each earthquake should serve as a reminder of this growing ocean sloshing around down there. For the Texas cattle ranchers and farmers who’ve been hard hit by some of the severest droughts on record, this must be a bitter irony.

  1. http://lightandchampion.com/article/002986-earthquake-shudders-timpson-area-once-again []
  2. http://www.epa.gov/hfstudy/21_McCurdy_-_UIC_Disposal_508.pdf []
  3. http://stateimpact.npr.org/texas/2012/09/20/new-report-aims-to-hit-fracking-right-in-the-pocket-book/ []
  4. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/02/dallas-earthquakes-wastewater-disposal-fracking_n_1933385.html []
  5. http://www.utexas.edu/news/2012/08/06/correlation-injection-wells-small-earthquakes []
  6. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/02/dallas-earthquakes-wastewater-disposal-fracking_n_1933385.html []
  7. http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/06/us-earthquakes-injection-wells-idUSBRE87519R20120806 []
  8. http://stateimpact.npr.org/texas/2012/08/06/how-fracking-disposal-wells-are-causing-earthquakes-in-dallas-fort-worth/ []
  9. http://www.utexas.edu/news/2012/08/06/correlation-injection-wells-small-earthquakes/ []
  10. ibid []
  11. United States Geological Survey []
  12. http://www.tceq.state.tx.us/assets/public/implementation/barnett_shale/bsAnnualWellCount.pdf/ []
  13. http://stateimpact.npr.org/texas/2012/08/06/how-fracking-disposal-wells-are-causing-earthquakes-in-dallas-fort-worth/ []
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Dec 072012
 

“I saw it coming across the river, the air went very electric and the sky went black. And then the wind started to whistle. This was like a juggernaut roaring through here,” witness Suzanne McFadden told New Zealand’s Newstalk ZB radio.1

Reuters/Reuters – A woman returns a lost dog to its ruined home amid the devastation in the suburb of Hobsonville after a tornado went through the western suburb in Auckland December 6, 2012. REUTERS/Nigel Marple

A violent tornado-like suddenly came out of nowhere yesterday afternoon about about 3pm and wreaked havoc in Hobsonville-Whenuapai, an area of West Auckland. Wind storms of this magnitude are almost unheard of in New Zealand.

Prime Minister John Key described the affected area as “utter devastation”; like something out of “mid-west America.”2

“I can say I have never seen anything like this in New Zealand before,” he said. “It’s far more significant than a very bad storm where you have a few trees down.3

As of this writing, 150 homes have been seriously damaged, many beyond repair.

The storm was ferocious and unexpected, throwing people, animals, and cars up into the air like rag dolls. People were going about their daily business when it struck.

“There were over 200 men working onsite and another 150 at the primary school, including one guy working on the roof,” said Key.

Chris Heywood, the manager of a horse trekking business called The Farmhouse on Sunnex Rd., was in the driveway when the tornado hit.

“The sky just went really black. We started getting flashes of lightning and thunder then it got really bad,” he said.4

“It just felt like someone kicked me in the chest. I was off the ground and spinning in circles.” Heywood went on to say, describing how the storm tossed him into the air.

As he was spinning in the air he hit against something and realized it was the three horses that had been in the stable. Then he noticed his truck was spinning around doing 360s with no one in it.

He was so dizzy he started vomiting. ”I thought it was the end of the world,” he said.5

 

  1. http://news.yahoo.com/rare-tornado-kills-three-zealands-biggest-city-024431885.html []
  2. http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/8047462/Fatal-Auckland-tornado-11m-damage []
  3. ibid []
  4. http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10852569 []
  5. ibid []
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Jan 302010
 

Mongolia, China, 2003, Strange Pre-Earthquake Occurrences

A 2003 story in the China Daily relates some strange occurrences just prior to a large earthquake that hit Chifeng, a city in Mongolia. Villagers reported that they saw spurt more than six feet into the air from a river bed that had been dry for many years.

Cellphone signals were reportedly knocked out for up till 10 hours prior to the quake in an area about 90 miles from the epicenter. Experts speculated the cause may have been interference from “abnormal terrestrial magnetic waves.” Continue reading »

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Jan 242010
 

Summary

A Google search using the words “earthquake trends”1 reveals that have been on a lot of peoples’ minds. But it’s not just since Haiti. As one high profile earthquake gives way to another, the Internet clearly indicates that many people are starting to ask questions. It’s interesting to note the different interpretations of what is perceived by many to be an increase in either the frequency or strength of in recent years. This post takes a look at some of the popular stories currently circulating about . They constitute the common beliefs that many people  share about and how they relate to contemporary societies. As such, it is felt that these stories represent modern about earthquakes.

Continue reading »

  1. without using quotes in the actual search []
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Jan 182010
 

Wild Animals in Threatened by Extinction as Severe Causes Food Shortages

In an article titled, “Kenyans eating wild animals as drought worsens,” The Chronicle reported on its blog last September that the drought in Kenya was so bad that people were resorting to hunting bush meat in the national parks. This includes monkeys and baboons, which, until a short time ago, were considered taboo. The situation has gotten so bad that in some parts of the country, frightened monkeys that used to roam freely have taken refuge in the bush, far away from humans. In other parts of the country, gangs of half-crazed baboons have banded together thrashing everything in sight, pounding dogs into “mince meat”. Continue reading »

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Jan 142010
 

Killer and Other Problems Beneath the Surface

Silent and unexpected, without warning, they smite with irresistible force. All that dwells upon the surface is subject to the invisible fury of the earthquake. Shacks and mansions, buildings, bridges, and roadways; their permanence rendered illusory. Yet for all its titanic power, the earthquake, unlike other natural forces, does not kill man directly. It exerts itself on the very things that sustain our civilization, causing what normally provides shelter to cave in and crush us.

Continue reading »

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Dec 302009
 

The in Africa from 1900 to 2009

Africa has been struggling with droughts for many years. Some countries there are facing enormous challenges. In a piece entitled, Kenyans eating wild animals as worsens, The Chronicle, for example, reports that wild animals “face extinction by ending up on dinner tables as the worst in a generation takes its toll on a people impoverished by years of poor governance, corruption and political sterility.” Since 1950, Ethiopia, another -plagued country, has suffered more years with than without. How bad is the situation in Africa and will it get worse? This post will take a look at the -stricken African countries and regions  going back to 1900 and attempt to determine whether this data suggests any trends.

Continue reading »

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Dec 222009
 

. Are They Increasing?

You don’t have to be a meteorologist, seismologist, or any other ologist to see that the frequency and intensity of natural disasters and events seems to have significantly increased over the last few decades. Massive flooding from extreme precipitation; raging from prolonged ; monster hurricanes or super tsunamis or giant all seem to have become much more common headlines over this time period. Continue reading »

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